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Cyclone Nargis devastates Burma



May 2, Cyclone Nargis hit the coastal area of south-eastern Burma, on the Ayeyarwady River delta with winds exceeding 200 km / h.



This region is densely populated. And as the path of the cyclone remained close to the ocean, it has not really weakened in intensity. Upon reaching Rangoon (Yangon), winds still at 130 km / h.

You can see below the Ayeyarwady River delta before and after Cyclone Nargis:



is announced one hundred thousand dead and one million homeless shelters. When you see these images, we think this record is only temporary.

The satellite maps of the Unosat announce an estimate of one million seven hundred thirty two thousand people currently living in flooded areas, without help, unassisted and without drinking water.

For now, there is still debate on the issue, but the scientific community believes that global warming will not cause more hurricanes, by cons they will be more and more violent. Cyclone Nargis, very violent and arriving very early in the season, is without doubt a confirmation.

For more information:
1. Cyclone Nargis in Burma more de 22.000 morts et 41.000 disparus (AFP)
2. 5.000 km2 submergés en Birmanie, un million de rescapés ont besoin d'aide selon l'ONU (AFP)
3. Cyclone Nargis Floods Myanmar (Burma) (Earth Observatory)
4. Heavy Rain from Cyclone Nargis (Earth Observatory)
5. Cyclone Nargis (Wikipedia)
6. Changement climatique: pas plus de cyclone, mais sans doute plus violents (AFP)

Crédit photos : NASA, Earth Observatory , Earth Observatory

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barrel of oil tops $ 120 a barrel oil



Comme I had explained early January, oil prices will continue to rise simply because the law of supply (which has stagnated at 84.6 million barrels per day) and demand, which explodes Because of the uncontrolled growth of China and India.

Well here we continue in joy and in good spirits: after crossing the 100 dollars in January and $ 110 in March, a barrel of oil surpassed $ 120 a barrel yesterday in New York. (Here, it is currently at $ 122 )

I recalled that in 2002 it was $ 20, and early 2004 there was $ 30 barrel.

Unlike anything you can tell in the press, the reason is simple.

Here are the numbers for recent years (source: EIA ):
- 2003: 79.62 million barrels per day.
- 2004: 83.12 million barrels per day.
- 2005: 84.63 million barrels per day.
- 2006: 84.60 million barrels per day.
- 2007: 84.60 million barrels per day.

Since 2005, the existing wells are drying up faster than new discoveries, and we can no longer exceed 84.6 million barrels per day.

It's as simple as that: as I have told you May 16, 2005, we are at the peak of world oil production. Global oil production has stagnated at 84.60 million barrels per day, and it is cleat everywhere.

And during that time, here are the figures of the daily consumption of China:
- 2003: 5.58 million barrels per day.
- 2004: 6.44 million barrels per day.
- 2005: 6.72 million barrels per day.
- 2006: 7.27 million barrels per day.
- 2007: 7.68 million barrels per day.

In 2006, for the first time, global demand has outstripped supply with 84.77 million barrels per day.
And in 2007, world demand was 85.59 million barrels per day, for a bid of 84.60 million barrels a day, I remind you. So in 2007 he missed just 1 million barrels of oil per day.

So, I think everyone has understood, and it is unnecessary to draw you a picture.

So see, there are climbing at a rate of $ 10 extra every 3 months, but that should logically accelerate. The $ 150 a barrel, it should be for Christmas.

Or before.

For more information:
1. Oil: a barrel of crude oil reached 122 dollars in New York (AFP)
2. Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX) (TFC Commodity Charts)
3. The peak of world oil production is this year (Gaia - May 2005)
4. barrel of oil exceeds $ 100 (Gaia - January 2008)
5. barrel of oil exceeds $ 110 (Gaia - March 2008)

Credit graphic: TFC Commodity Charts